First winter all Triads fall before Christmas

Posted on 30 March 2020

National Grid has published its Triad data for the 2019/20 winters season – and for the first time ever, all three of the peak demand periods occurred before 25 December. They are:

  • Monday 18 November, 17:00-17:30

  • Monday 2 December, 17:00-17:30

  • Tuesday 17 December, 16:30-17:00

The Triad Forecasting Team at npower Business Solutions successfully called all three, out of a total of 18 warnings issued throughout the season.

As well as looking widely at all possible influences – from the weather to industrial activity – each season presents its own unique challenges.

“Overall, the winter we’ve just had was relatively warm, so we were closely monitoring other factors such as renewable output,” explains Jeff Hill, Short-term Forecasting Lead in the nBS Demand Forecasting Team. “For example, although 18 November wasn’t particularly cold, the wind speed and embedded wind generation were relatively low, meaning that net demand was higher than on some much colder days.”

As previously reported, National Grid’s Transmission Network Use of System (TNUoS) charges are due to change after the 2020/21 winter season. This is because Ofgem is planning to introduce a new fixed charge while reducing the Triad rate in April 2021, as a result of its Targeted Charging Review.   

However, due to tight timescales and complications with introducing the new charging system, National Grid has asked Ofgem to consider giving more time to implement the changes (see our recent blog).

“Whether this means the current Triad system stays in place through the 2021/22 winter season remains to be seen, but we will keep customers informed as soon as we know more,” says Helen Inwood, Non-Commodity Charging Manager.

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