This year has seen UK wholesale gas and power prices slide with much of the risk premium from 2018 eroded away. This was due, in part, to a rerouting of liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes from Asia to the UK and Europe. The sheer volume of LNG arrivals has kept a handle on any moves to the upside whilst continuing to drive gas prices lower.
The global economic outlook has also shifted to a gloomier picture. Ongoing trade talks between the US and China, weak macro data out of both China and the Eurozone, as well as uncertainty surrounding the UK’s participation in the Emissions Trading System after Brexit, have all weighed heavily on the commodity complex and encouraged fears of a global recession. In this Winter Outlook we will assess these risks in more detail and highlight the potential drivers for UK wholesale prices this winter, to both the upside and the downside.